CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 4 · 11 games
South Alabama @ KentuckyKentucky 91%
Model
Kentucky -19.1 · mkt Kentucky —
proj South Alabama 17.5 · Kentucky 36.6
Total
proj 54.1
App State @ NC StateNC State 85%
Model
NC State -14.9 · mkt NC State —
proj App State 20.2 · NC State 35.2
Total
proj 55.4
Southern Miss @ TulaneTulane 81%
Model
Tulane -12.5 · mkt Tulane —
proj Southern Miss 20.1 · Tulane 32.7
Total
proj 52.8
Kennesaw State @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 68%
Model
Arkansas State -6.7 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Kennesaw State 24.8 · Arkansas State 31.5
Total
proj 56.2
Troy @ Utah StateUtah State 65%
Model
Utah State -5.4 · mkt Utah State —
proj Troy 27.3 · Utah State 32.7
Total
proj 60.0
Liberty @ Coastal CarolinaCoastal Carolina 54%
Model
Coastal Carolina -1.3 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj Liberty 26.7 · Coastal Carolina 27.9
Total
proj 54.6
Northern Illinois @ Georgia StateGeorgia State 52%
Model
Georgia State -0.6 · mkt Georgia State —
proj Northern Illinois 24.1 · Georgia State 24.7
Total
proj 48.8
James Madison @ Old DominionJames Madison 50%
Model
James Madison -0.1 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 26.9 · Old Dominion 26.8
Total
proj 53.7
Florida Atlantic @ UL MonroeFlorida Atlantic 64%
Model
Florida Atlantic -5.2 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Florida Atlantic 30.4 · UL Monroe 25.2
Total
proj 55.5
Houston @ Georgia SouthernHouston 70%
Model
Houston -7.6 · mkt Houston —
proj Houston 32.7 · Georgia Southern 25.2
Total
proj 57.9
Louisiana @ CharlotteLouisiana 76%
Model
Louisiana -10.1 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 32.8 · Charlotte 22.7
Total
proj 55.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.