CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 3 · 13 games
Troy @ MissouriMissouri 96%
Model
Missouri -25.0 · mkt Missouri —
proj Troy 15.5 · Missouri 40.5
Total
proj 55.9
Arkansas State @ TCUTCU 93%
Model
TCU -20.9 · mkt TCU —
proj Arkansas State 17.3 · TCU 38.2
Total
proj 55.5
Georgia State @ UCFUCF 86%
Model
UCF -15.4 · mkt UCF —
proj Georgia State 18.1 · UCF 33.5
Total
proj 51.7
Louisiana Tech @ BaylorBaylor 82%
Model
Baylor -12.8 · mkt Baylor —
proj Louisiana Tech 20.4 · Baylor 33.2
Total
proj 53.6
UAB @ LouisianaLouisiana 75%
Model
Louisiana -9.6 · mkt Louisiana —
proj UAB 21.3 · Louisiana 30.9
Total
proj 52.2
Charlotte @ App StateApp State 73%
Model
App State -8.7 · mkt App State —
proj Charlotte 23.2 · App State 31.9
Total
proj 55.2
Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 69%
Model
Jacksonville State -6.9 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Georgia Southern 24.2 · Jacksonville State 31.1
Total
proj 55.2
Coastal Carolina @ DelawareDelaware 68%
Model
Delaware -6.7 · mkt Delaware —
proj Coastal Carolina 26.1 · Delaware 32.8
Total
proj 58.9
James Madison @ San Diego StateJames Madison 52%
Model
James Madison -0.8 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 25.4 · San Diego State 24.6
Total
proj 50.0
Marshall @ Missouri StateMarshall 53%
Model
Marshall -1.2 · mkt Marshall —
proj Marshall 31.9 · Missouri State 30.7
Total
proj 62.7
East Carolina @ Old DominionEast Carolina 55%
Model
East Carolina -1.6 · mkt East Carolina —
proj East Carolina 28.7 · Old Dominion 27.0
Total
proj 55.7
Ohio @ South AlabamaOhio 56%
Model
Ohio -2.3 · mkt Ohio —
proj Ohio 28.9 · South Alabama 26.6
Total
proj 55.5
UConn @ Southern MissUConn 60%
Model
UConn -3.8 · mkt UConn —
proj UConn 28.7 · Southern Miss 24.9
Total
proj 53.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.