CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 2 · 10 games
Southern Miss @ AuburnAuburn 98%
Model
Auburn -30.1 · mkt Auburn —
proj Southern Miss 13.5 · Auburn 43.6
Total
proj 57.1
Georgia Southern @ ClemsonClemson 95%
Model
Clemson -23.8 · mkt Clemson —
proj Georgia Southern 15.4 · Clemson 39.2
Total
proj 54.5
Louisiana Tech @ LSULSU 95%
Model
LSU -23.0 · mkt LSU —
proj Louisiana Tech 14.0 · LSU 37.1
Total
proj 51.1
South Alabama @ TulaneTulane 88%
Model
Tulane -17.1 · mkt Tulane —
proj South Alabama 17.0 · Tulane 34.1
Total
proj 51.0
App State @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 88%
Model
East Carolina -16.9 · mkt East Carolina —
proj App State 19.1 · East Carolina 36.0
Total
proj 55.1
Middle Tennessee @ MarshallMarshall 80%
Model
Marshall -11.8 · mkt Marshall —
proj Middle Tennessee 21.0 · Marshall 32.8
Total
proj 53.7
Georgia State @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 79%
Model
Kennesaw State -11.2 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Georgia State 20.6 · Kennesaw State 31.9
Total
proj 52.5
Old Dominion @ Virginia TechOld Dominion 55%
Model
Old Dominion -1.9 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 29.8 · Virginia Tech 28.0
Total
proj 57.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.