CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 13 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 13 · 7 games
Coastal Carolina @ James MadisonJames Madison 91%
Model
James Madison -19.0 · mkt James Madison —
proj Coastal Carolina 16.6 · James Madison 35.5
Total
proj 52.1
Southern Miss @ Old DominionOld Dominion 78%
Model
Old Dominion -10.8 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Southern Miss 22.5 · Old Dominion 33.3
Total
proj 55.8
App State @ South AlabamaSouth Alabama 57%
Model
South Alabama -2.6 · mkt South Alabama —
proj App State 26.9 · South Alabama 29.5
Total
proj 56.4
Louisiana Tech @ Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern 56%
Model
Georgia Southern -2.1 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Louisiana Tech 26.2 · Georgia Southern 28.3
Total
proj 54.5
Troy @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 55%
Model
Arkansas State -1.9 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Troy 25.2 · Arkansas State 27.1
Total
proj 52.4
Louisiana @ Georgia StateLouisiana 61%
Model
Louisiana -4.0 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 28.4 · Georgia State 24.5
Total
proj 52.9
Marshall @ UL MonroeMarshall 78%
Model
Marshall -11.2 · mkt Marshall —
proj Marshall 33.5 · UL Monroe 22.3
Total
proj 55.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.