CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 12 · 7 games
UL Monroe @ App StateApp State 85%
Model
App State -14.7 · mkt App State —
proj UL Monroe 19.5 · App State 34.2
Total
proj 53.7
Georgia State @ MarshallMarshall 85%
Model
Marshall -14.6 · mkt Marshall —
proj Georgia State 21.3 · Marshall 35.9
Total
proj 57.1
Coastal Carolina @ LouisianaLouisiana 73%
Model
Louisiana -8.6 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Coastal Carolina 22.2 · Louisiana 30.8
Total
proj 52.9
Arkansas State @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 71%
Model
Louisiana Tech -7.7 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Arkansas State 23.0 · Louisiana Tech 30.7
Total
proj 53.7
Georgia Southern @ TroyTroy 67%
Model
Troy -6.4 · mkt Troy —
proj Georgia Southern 26.0 · Troy 32.4
Total
proj 58.4
South Alabama @ Southern MissSouthern Miss 64%
Model
Southern Miss -5.3 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj South Alabama 25.2 · Southern Miss 30.5
Total
proj 55.7
Old Dominion @ UConnUConn 54%
Model
UConn -1.3 · mkt UConn —
proj Old Dominion 28.2 · UConn 29.5
Total
proj 57.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.