CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 11 · 7 games
App State @ MarshallMarshall 78%
Model
Marshall -10.9 · mkt Marshall —
proj App State 21.7 · Marshall 32.6
Total
proj 54.3
Southern Miss @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 69%
Model
Louisiana Tech -6.9 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Southern Miss 24.8 · Louisiana Tech 31.8
Total
proj 56.6
Troy @ South AlabamaSouth Alabama 53%
Model
South Alabama -1.0 · mkt South Alabama —
proj Troy 28.5 · South Alabama 29.5
Total
proj 58.0
Arkansas State @ Coastal CarolinaArkansas State 53%
Model
Arkansas State -0.9 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Arkansas State 27.2 · Coastal Carolina 26.3
Total
proj 53.5
Georgia Southern @ Georgia StateGeorgia Southern 60%
Model
Georgia Southern -3.7 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Georgia Southern 28.1 · Georgia State 24.3
Total
proj 52.4
James Madison @ UConnJames Madison 62%
Model
James Madison -4.3 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 27.6 · UConn 23.3
Total
proj 50.9
Louisiana @ UL MonroeLouisiana 64%
Model
Louisiana -5.1 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 31.0 · UL Monroe 25.9
Total
proj 56.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.