CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 10 · 7 games
UL Monroe @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 91%
Model
Arkansas State -18.6 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj UL Monroe 17.3 · Arkansas State 35.9
Total
proj 53.2
Georgia State @ App StateApp State 77%
Model
App State -10.3 · mkt App State —
proj Georgia State 23.7 · App State 34.0
Total
proj 57.8
South Alabama @ LouisianaLouisiana 64%
Model
Louisiana -5.2 · mkt Louisiana —
proj South Alabama 23.5 · Louisiana 28.7
Total
proj 52.2
Marshall @ Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern 56%
Model
Georgia Southern -2.1 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Marshall 26.1 · Georgia Southern 28.3
Total
proj 54.4
Louisiana Tech @ TroyTroy 55%
Model
Troy -1.8 · mkt Troy —
proj Louisiana Tech 26.2 · Troy 28.0
Total
proj 54.1
Old Dominion @ Coastal CarolinaOld Dominion 76%
Model
Old Dominion -9.9 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 31.1 · Coastal Carolina 21.2
Total
proj 52.4
James Madison @ Southern MissJames Madison 82%
Model
James Madison -13.1 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 33.6 · Southern Miss 20.5
Total
proj 54.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.