CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Liberty @ James Madison11.2 pt gap
Model vs mktJames Madison -17.5 · mkt James Madison ~-6.3
LeanJames Madison -6.3
Best priceJames Madison -6 -110best of 7
WinJames Madison 89%
Marshall @ Penn State7.0 pt gap
Model vs mktPenn State -30.0 · mkt Penn State ~-23.0
LeanPenn State -23.0
Best pricePenn State -22.5 -106best of 7
WinPenn State 98%
Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia4.6 pt gap
Model vs mktWest Virginia -13.4 · mkt West Virginia ~-18.0
LeanCoastal Carolina +18.0
Best priceCoastal Carolina +18.5 -115best of 7
WinWest Virginia 83%
UL Monroe @ Mississippi State2.4 pt gap
Model vs mktMississippi State -30.9 · mkt Mississippi State ~-28.5
LeanMississippi State -28.5
Best priceMississippi State -28.5 -108best of 7
WinMississippi State 99%
Sam Houston @ Troy1.3 pt gap
Model vs mktTroy -16.5 · mkt Troy ~-17.8
LeanSam Houston +17.8
Best priceSam Houston +18 -106best of 7
WinTroy 88%
Arkansas State @ Memphis0.6 pt gap
Model vs mktMemphis -9.9 · mkt Memphis ~-10.5
LeanArkansas State +10.5
Best priceArkansas State +10.5 -110best of 6
WinMemphis 76%
Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 1 · 6 games
Liberty @ James MadisonJames Madison 89%
Model
James Madison -17.5 · mkt James Madison ~-6.3
proj Liberty 18.8 · James Madison 36.3
leans James Madison -6.3
◆ Mid 0.5
James Madison -6 -110DraftKings
Liberty +6.5 -108FanDuel
Marshall @ Penn StatePenn State 98%
Model
Penn State -30.0 · mkt Penn State ~-23.0
proj Marshall 11.1 · Penn State 41.2
leans Penn State -23.0
◆ Mid 1
Penn State -22.5 -106LowVig
Marshall +23.5 -112DraftKings
Coastal Carolina @ West VirginiaWest Virginia 83%
Model
West Virginia -13.4 · mkt West Virginia ~-18.0
proj Coastal Carolina 19.2 · West Virginia 32.6
leans Coastal Carolina +18.0
◆ Mid 1
West Virginia -17.5 -112DraftKings
Coastal Carolina +18.5 -115FanDuel
UL Monroe @ Mississippi StateMississippi State 99%
Model
Mississippi State -30.9 · mkt Mississippi State ~-28.5
proj UL Monroe 13.0 · Mississippi State 43.8
leans Mississippi State -28.5
◆ Mid 0
Mississippi State -28.5 -108DraftKings
UL Monroe +28.5 -112DraftKings
Sam Houston @ TroyTroy 88%
Model
Troy -16.5 · mkt Troy ~-17.8
proj Sam Houston 19.4 · Troy 36.0
leans Sam Houston +17.8
◆ Mid 0.5
Troy -17.5 -105DraftKings
Sam Houston +18 -106LowVig
Arkansas State @ MemphisMemphis 76%
Model
Memphis -9.9 · mkt Memphis ~-10.5
proj Arkansas State 20.7 · Memphis 30.6
leans Arkansas State +10.5
◆ Mid 0
Memphis -10.5 -110DraftKings
Arkansas State +10.5 -110DraftKings
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.