CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 9 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · Sun Belt · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–0100%
ATS vs close
2–340%
Model margin MAE
9.7
Market margin MAE
8.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
App State @ Old DominionFinal 21–24
Model
pred Old Dominion 7.5 · actual Old Dominion 3
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned App State +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 10.5 · closer
UL Monroe @ Southern MissFinal 21–49
Model
pred Southern Miss 5.0 · actual Southern Miss 28
winner Southern Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UL Monroe +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.0 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas StateFinal 24–34
Model
pred Arkansas State 1.7 · actual Arkansas State 10
winner Arkansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 11.0 · closer
Louisiana @ TroyFinal 23–35
Model
pred Troy 1.0 · actual Troy 12
winner Troy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
South Alabama @ Georgia StateFinal 38–31
Model
pred South Alabama 5.2 · actual South Alabama 7
winner South Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.