CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 7 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · Sun Belt · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–267%
ATS vs close
4–1 · 1P80%
Model margin MAE
13.9
Market margin MAE
16.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Troy @ Texas StateFinal 48–41
Model
pred Texas State 16.1 · actual Troy 7
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.1 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ James MadisonFinal 14–24
Model
pred James Madison 15.2 · actual James Madison 10
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 8.5 · closer
UL Monroe @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 8–23
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 5.7 · actual Coastal Carolina 15
winner Coastal Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 18.0 · closer
Southern Miss @ Georgia SouthernFinal 38–35
Model
pred Georgia Southern 4.7 · actual Southern Miss 3
winner Georgia Southern ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +3.0Push
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ MarshallFinal 24–48
Model
pred Marshall 1.3 · actual Marshall 24
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.7 · mkt 38.5 · closer
App State @ Georgia StateFinal 41–20
Model
pred App State 5.8 · actual App State 21
winner App State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned App State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.2 · mkt 18.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.