CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 6 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · Sun Belt · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–350%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
14.8
Market margin MAE
13.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Coastal Carolina @ Old DominionFinal 7–47
Model
pred Old Dominion 15.0 · actual Old Dominion 40
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.0 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
UL Monroe @ NorthwesternFinal 7–42
Model
pred Northwestern 10.6 · actual Northwestern 35
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UL Monroe +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.4 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
Oregon State @ App StateFinal 23–27
Model
pred Oregon State 0.2 · actual App State 4
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
South Alabama @ TroyFinal 24–31
Model
pred South Alabama 1.1 · actual Troy 7
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Texas State @ Arkansas StateFinal 30–31
Model
pred Texas State 12.0 · actual Arkansas State 1
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 15.0 · closer
James Madison @ Georgia StateFinal 14–7
Model
pred James Madison 21.3 · actual James Madison 7
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -19.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.