CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 5 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · Sun Belt · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–357%
ATS vs close
2–529%
Model margin MAE
13.8
Market margin MAE
8.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
South Alabama @ North TexasFinal 22–36
Model
pred North Texas 13.3 · actual North Texas 14
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Texas -13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 1.0 · closer
Georgia Southern @ James MadisonFinal 10–35
Model
pred James Madison 12.4 · actual James Madison 25
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +15.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.6 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Liberty @ Old DominionFinal 7–21
Model
pred Old Dominion 8.1 · actual Old Dominion 14
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
App State @ Boise StateFinal 14–47
Model
pred Boise State 8.1 · actual Boise State 33
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned App State +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.9 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Marshall @ LouisianaFinal 51–54
Model
pred Marshall 4.0 · actual Louisiana 3
winner Marshall ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas State @ UL MonroeFinal 16–28
Model
pred Arkansas State 8.0 · actual UL Monroe 12
winner Arkansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.0 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Southern MissFinal 25–42
Model
pred Jacksonville State 8.8 · actual Southern Miss 17
winner Jacksonville State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.8 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.