CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 3 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Week 3 backtest · Sun Belt · 9 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–367%
ATS vs close
3–633%
Model margin MAE
19.2
Market margin MAE
14.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
South Alabama @ AuburnFinal 15–31
Model
pred Auburn 19.6 · actual Auburn 16
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama +26.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Louisiana @ MissouriFinal 10–52
Model
pred Missouri 12.0 · actual Missouri 42
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +27.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.0 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ Virginia TechFinal 45–26
Model
pred Virginia Tech 5.1 · actual Old Dominion 19
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.1 · mkt 24.5 · closer
Texas State @ Arizona StateFinal 15–34
Model
pred Arizona State 4.3 · actual Arizona State 19
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.7 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 38–0
Model
pred East Carolina 5.9 · actual East Carolina 38
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.1 · mkt 31.0 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Georgia SouthernFinal 34–41
Model
pred Jacksonville State 6.3 · actual Georgia Southern 7
winner Jacksonville State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.3 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Memphis @ TroyFinal 28–7
Model
pred Memphis 10.0 · actual Memphis 21
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 16.5 · closer
App State @ Southern MissFinal 22–38
Model
pred App State 11.9 · actual Southern Miss 16
winner App State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned App State -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.9 · mkt 19.0 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ Arkansas StateFinal 24–16
Model
pred Iowa State 24.3 · actual Iowa State 8
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 13.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.