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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 15 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 15 backtest · Sun Belt · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–0100%
ATS vs close
1–0100%
Model margin MAE
3.8
Market margin MAE
7.5
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Troy @ James MadisonFinal 14–31
Model
pred James Madison 20.8 · actual James Madison 17
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +24.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 7.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.