CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 12 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · Sun Belt · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–183%
ATS vs close
4–267%
Model margin MAE
14.6
Market margin MAE
15.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
App State @ James MadisonFinal 10–58
Model
pred James Madison 22.3 · actual James Madison 48
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 25.7 · mkt 27.0 · closer
Troy @ Old DominionFinal 0–33
Model
pred Old Dominion 8.6 · actual Old Dominion 33
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.4 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Texas State @ Southern MissFinal 41–14
Model
pred Southern Miss 2.3 · actual Texas State 27
winner Southern Miss ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.3 · mkt 30.0 · closer
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia SouthernFinal 40–45
Model
pred Georgia Southern 0.7 · actual Georgia Southern 5
winner Georgia Southern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.3 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
South Alabama @ UL MonroeFinal 26–14
Model
pred South Alabama 9.2 · actual South Alabama 12
winner South Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.8 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Marshall @ Georgia StateFinal 30–18
Model
pred Marshall 12.9 · actual Marshall 12
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 2.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.