CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 11 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Sun Belt · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–340%
ATS vs close
3–260%
Model margin MAE
7.6
Market margin MAE
4.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Georgia State @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 27–40
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 14.0 · actual Coastal Carolina 13
winner Coastal Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Georgia Southern @ App StateFinal 25–23
Model
pred App State 5.1 · actual Georgia Southern 2
winner App State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned App State -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.1 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
James Madison @ MarshallFinal 35–23
Model
pred Marshall 1.5 · actual James Madison 12
winner Marshall ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Southern Miss @ Arkansas StateFinal 27–21
Model
pred Southern Miss 0.9 · actual Southern Miss 6
winner Southern Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Texas State @ LouisianaFinal 39–42
Model
pred Texas State 8.1 · actual Louisiana 3
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.1 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.