CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 10 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 10 backtest · Sun Belt · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
2–340%
ATS vs close
1–420%
Model margin MAE
20.4
Market margin MAE
18.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Arkansas State @ TroyFinal 23–10
Model
pred Troy 6.7 · actual Arkansas State 13
winner Troy ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.7 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Louisiana @ South AlabamaFinal 31–22
Model
pred South Alabama 3.7 · actual Louisiana 9
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
James Madison @ Texas StateFinal 52–20
Model
pred James Madison 1.0 · actual James Madison 32
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.0 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
Marshall @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 27–44
Model
pred Marshall 7.8 · actual Coastal Carolina 17
winner Marshall ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.8 · mkt 24.0 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ UL MonroeFinal 31–6
Model
pred Old Dominion 11.4 · actual Old Dominion 25
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UL Monroe +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.6 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.