CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 9 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Week 9 backtest · Sun Belt · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–0100%
ATS vs close
5–0100%
Model margin MAE
10.5
Market margin MAE
12.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Southern Miss @ James MadisonFinal 15–32
Model
pred James Madison 23.0 · actual James Madison 17
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +24.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.0 · mkt 7.0 · closer
UL Monroe @ South AlabamaFinal 17–46
Model
pred South Alabama 12.1 · actual South Alabama 29
winner South Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.9 · mkt 22.0 · closer
Georgia State @ App StateFinal 26–33
Model
pred App State 5.1 · actual App State 7
winner App State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Troy @ Arkansas StateFinal 31–34
Model
pred Arkansas State 3.8 · actual Arkansas State 3
winner Arkansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Georgia Southern @ Old DominionFinal 19–47
Model
pred Old Dominion 1.2 · actual Old Dominion 28
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 26.8 · mkt 29.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.