CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 8 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · Sun Belt · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–267%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
13.1
Market margin MAE
11.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Troy @ South AlabamaFinal 9–25
Model
pred South Alabama 5.9 · actual South Alabama 16
winner South Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.1 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
Georgia State @ MarshallFinal 20–35
Model
pred Marshall 5.0 · actual Marshall 15
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 34–24
Model
pred Louisiana 3.7 · actual Louisiana 10
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas State @ Southern MissFinal 44–28
Model
pred Arkansas State 7.9 · actual Arkansas State 16
winner Arkansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Texas State @ Old DominionFinal 14–24
Model
pred Texas State 8.6 · actual Old Dominion 10
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.6 · mkt 20.5 · closer
James Madison @ Georgia SouthernFinal 14–28
Model
pred James Madison 11.7 · actual Georgia Southern 14
winner James Madison ✗
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.7 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.