CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 7 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · Sun Belt · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–0100%
ATS vs close
3–1 · 2P75%
Model margin MAE
10.8
Market margin MAE
11.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Arkansas State @ Texas StateFinal 9–41
Model
pred Texas State 17.1 · actual Texas State 32
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.9 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Coastal Carolina @ James MadisonFinal 7–39
Model
pred James Madison 7.4 · actual James Madison 32
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.6 · mkt 25.0 · closer
App State @ LouisianaFinal 24–34
Model
pred Louisiana 7.0 · actual Louisiana 10
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned App State +10.0Push
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Southern Miss @ UL MonroeFinal 21–38
Model
pred UL Monroe 4.4 · actual UL Monroe 17
winner UL Monroe ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.6 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Marshall @ Georgia SouthernFinal 23–24
Model
pred Georgia Southern 4.3 · actual Georgia Southern 1
winner Georgia Southern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern -1.0Push
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ Georgia StateFinal 21–14
Model
pred Old Dominion 0.6 · actual Old Dominion 7
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 10.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.