CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 6 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · Sun Belt · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–350%
ATS vs close
3–350%
Model margin MAE
10.2
Market margin MAE
8.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Old Dominion @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 37–45
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 9.0 · actual Coastal Carolina 8
winner Coastal Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 4.0 · closer
App State @ MarshallFinal 37–52
Model
pred App State 1.1 · actual Marshall 15
winner App State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned App State +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.1 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
South Alabama @ Arkansas StateFinal 16–18
Model
pred South Alabama 1.9 · actual Arkansas State 2
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Texas State @ TroyFinal 38–17
Model
pred Texas State 3.2 · actual Texas State 21
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
James Madison @ UL MonroeFinal 19–21
Model
pred James Madison 12.4 · actual UL Monroe 2
winner James Madison ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UL Monroe +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.4 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Louisiana @ Southern MissFinal 23–13
Model
pred Louisiana 18.2 · actual Louisiana 10
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana -17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.