CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 5 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · Sun Belt · 9 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–450%
ATS vs close
6–275%
Model margin MAE
12.7
Market margin MAE
13.9
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Ball State @ James MadisonFinal 7–63
Model
pred James Madison 22.9 · actual James Madison 56
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -22.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 33.1 · mkt 34.0 · closer
South Alabama @ LSUFinal 10–42
Model
pred LSU 22.3 · actual LSU 32
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LSU -21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 11.0 · closer
UL Monroe @ TroyFinal 13–9
Model
pred Troy 8.5 · actual UL Monroe 4
winner Troy ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Troy -6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.5 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ Bowling GreenFinal 30–27
Model
pred Bowling Green 7.7 · actual Old Dominion 3
winner Bowling Green ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.7 · mkt 14.0 · closer
Western Michigan @ MarshallFinal 20–27
Model
pred Marshall 4.4 · actual Marshall 7
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Georgia Southern @ Georgia StateFinal 38–21
Model
pred Georgia State 3.6 · actual Georgia Southern 17
winner Georgia State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Liberty @ App StateFinal 0–0
Model
pred Liberty 3.7 · actual tie
winner Liberty · tie
ATS vs close
no closing line
Louisiana @ Wake ForestFinal 41–38
Model
pred Louisiana 7.3 · actual Louisiana 3
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.3 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Texas State @ Sam HoustonFinal 39–40
Model
pred Texas State 7.5 · actual Sam Houston 1
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 12.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.