CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 2 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · Sun Belt · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–460%
ATS vs close
5–550%
Model margin MAE
17.1
Market margin MAE
14.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
App State @ ClemsonFinal 20–66
Model
pred Clemson 21.4 · actual Clemson 46
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.6 · mkt 29.5 · closer
Marshall @ Virginia TechFinal 14–31
Model
pred Virginia Tech 20.1 · actual Virginia Tech 17
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Tulsa @ Arkansas StateFinal 24–28
Model
pred Arkansas State 8.0 · actual Arkansas State 4
winner Arkansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +9.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Troy @ MemphisFinal 17–38
Model
pred Memphis 7.9 · actual Memphis 21
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ Kennesaw StateFinal 34–10
Model
pred Kennesaw State 5.0 · actual Louisiana 24
winner Kennesaw State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.0 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ Old DominionFinal 20–14
Model
pred East Carolina 2.7 · actual East Carolina 6
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Georgia Southern @ NevadaFinal 20–17
Model
pred Georgia Southern 3.0 · actual Georgia Southern 3
winner Georgia Southern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.0 · mkt 4.0 · closer
UTSA @ Texas StateFinal 10–49
Model
pred UTSA 4.1 · actual Texas State 39
winner UTSA ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 43.1 · mkt 36.5 · mkt closer
South Alabama @ OhioFinal 20–27
Model
pred South Alabama 6.2 · actual Ohio 7
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.2 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
UAB @ UL MonroeFinal 6–32
Model
pred UAB 12.0 · actual UL Monroe 26
winner UAB ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UAB -11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 38.0 · mkt 37.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.