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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 14 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · Sun Belt · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–271%
ATS vs close
2–529%
Model margin MAE
10.6
Market margin MAE
8.6
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Southern Miss @ TroyFinal 20–52
Model
pred Troy 15.6 · actual Troy 32
winner Troy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.4 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Marshall @ James MadisonFinal 35–33
Model
pred James Madison 6.9 · actual Marshall 2
winner James Madison ✗
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.9 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ Arkansas StateFinal 40–32
Model
pred Arkansas State 6.5 · actual Old Dominion 8
winner Arkansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.5 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
App State @ Georgia SouthernFinal 20–29
Model
pred Georgia Southern 0.2 · actual Georgia Southern 9
winner Georgia Southern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned App State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Texas State @ South AlabamaFinal 45–38
Model
pred Texas State 1.4 · actual Texas State 7
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.6 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia StateFinal 48–27
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 2.2 · actual Coastal Carolina 21
winner Coastal Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +0.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Louisiana @ UL MonroeFinal 37–23
Model
pred Louisiana 15.0 · actual Louisiana 14
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana -8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 5.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.