CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 13 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · Sun Belt · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–443%
ATS vs close
6–186%
Model margin MAE
13.0
Market margin MAE
14.9
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Georgia State @ Texas StateFinal 52–44
Model
pred Texas State 14.2 · actual Georgia State 8
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +23.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.2 · mkt 31.0 · closer
UL Monroe @ Arkansas StateFinal 21–28
Model
pred Arkansas State 10.4 · actual Arkansas State 7
winner Arkansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Troy @ LouisianaFinal 30–51
Model
pred Louisiana 9.6 · actual Louisiana 21
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.4 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Georgia Southern @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 26–6
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 5.2 · actual Georgia Southern 20
winner Coastal Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina -2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.2 · mkt 22.0 · mkt closer
Marshall @ Old DominionFinal 42–35
Model
pred Old Dominion 2.8 · actual Marshall 7
winner Old Dominion ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.8 · mkt 10.0 · closer
James Madison @ App StateFinal 20–34
Model
pred James Madison 2.6 · actual App State 14
winner James Madison ✗
ATS vs close
leaned App State +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.6 · mkt 21.0 · closer
South Alabama @ Southern MissFinal 35–14
Model
pred South Alabama 23.3 · actual South Alabama 21
winner South Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +24.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 3.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.