CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 11 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Sun Belt · 5 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–180%
ATS vs close
2–340%
Model margin MAE
18.9
Market margin MAE
17.4
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Georgia State @ James MadisonFinal 7–38
Model
pred James Madison 12.7 · actual James Madison 31
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas State @ LouisianaFinal 19–55
Model
pred Louisiana 7.7 · actual Louisiana 36
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.3 · mkt 22.0 · mkt closer
App State @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 24–38
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 0.0 · actual Coastal Carolina 14
winner Coastal Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Marshall @ Southern MissFinal 37–3
Model
pred Marshall 8.5 · actual Marshall 34
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.5 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Texas State @ UL MonroeFinal 38–17
Model
pred Texas State 12.4 · actual Texas State 21
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.6 · mkt 11.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.