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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 1 · Sun Belt · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · Sun Belt · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–363%
ATS vs close
3–538%
Model margin MAE
14.5
Market margin MAE
12.9
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Georgia State @ Georgia TechFinal 12–35
Model
pred Georgia Tech 18.9 · actual Georgia Tech 23
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Southern Miss @ KentuckyFinal 0–31
Model
pred Kentucky 18.3 · actual Kentucky 31
winner Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +25.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Nevada @ TroyFinal 28–26
Model
pred Troy 15.2 · actual Nevada 2
winner Troy ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Troy -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ South CarolinaFinal 19–23
Model
pred South Carolina 15.0 · actual South Carolina 4
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 16.5 · closer
North Texas @ South AlabamaFinal 52–38
Model
pred South Alabama 12.3 · actual North Texas 14
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.3 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Coastal Carolina @ Jacksonville StateFinal 55–27
Model
pred Jacksonville State 6.1 · actual Coastal Carolina 28
winner Jacksonville State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.1 · mkt 31.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ Georgia SouthernFinal 56–45
Model
pred Boise State 8.6 · actual Boise State 11
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
James Madison @ CharlotteFinal 30–7
Model
pred James Madison 15.1 · actual James Madison 23
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 16.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.