CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — SEC · Week 9 · 5 games
Florida @ GeorgiaGeorgia 89%
Model
Georgia -17.6 · mkt Georgia —
proj Florida 16.7 · Georgia 34.4
Total
proj 51.1
Mississippi State @ TexasTexas 86%
Model
Texas -15.5 · mkt Texas —
proj Mississippi State 18.2 · Texas 33.6
Total
proj 51.8
South Carolina @ OklahomaOklahoma 77%
Model
Oklahoma -10.6 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj South Carolina 21.5 · Oklahoma 32.1
Total
proj 53.5
Auburn @ Ole MissOle Miss 63%
Model
Ole Miss -4.6 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Auburn 27.2 · Ole Miss 31.7
Total
proj 58.9
Missouri @ ArkansasArkansas 50%
Model
Arkansas -0.1 · mkt Arkansas —
proj Missouri 28.8 · Arkansas 28.9
Total
proj 57.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.