CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Auburn @ Georgia2.5 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia -14.0 · mkt Georgia ~-16.5
LeanAuburn +16.5
Best priceAuburn +16.5 -110best of 1
WinGeorgia 84%
Alabama @ Tennessee0.1 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -1.6 · mkt Alabama ~-1.5
LeanAlabama -1.5
Best priceAlabama -1.5 -110best of 1
WinAlabama 55%
Full Slate — SEC · Week 7 · 7 games
Auburn @ GeorgiaGeorgia 84%
Model
Georgia -14.0 · mkt Georgia ~-16.5
proj Auburn 21.3 · Georgia 35.3
leans Auburn +16.5
◆ Mid 0
Georgia -16.5 -110DraftKings
Auburn +16.5 -110DraftKings
Alabama @ TennesseeAlabama 55%
Model
Alabama -1.6 · mkt Alabama ~-1.5
proj Alabama 29.5 · Tennessee 27.8
leans Alabama -1.5
◆ Mid 0
Tennessee +1.5 -110DraftKings
Alabama -1.5 -110DraftKings
Kentucky @ OklahomaOklahoma 88%
Model
Oklahoma -16.7 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Kentucky 19.2 · Oklahoma 35.8
Total
proj 55.0
Mississippi State @ LSULSU 84%
Model
LSU -14.2 · mkt LSU —
proj Mississippi State 21.2 · LSU 35.3
Total
proj 56.5
Missouri @ Ole MissOle Miss 79%
Model
Ole Miss -11.2 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Missouri 24.2 · Ole Miss 35.4
Total
proj 59.6
Arkansas @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 78%
Model
Vanderbilt -10.9 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Arkansas 22.2 · Vanderbilt 33.1
Total
proj 55.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.