CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Texas @ Oklahoma13.0 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -6.8 · mkt Oklahoma ~+6.2
LeanOklahoma +6.2
Best priceOklahoma +6.5 -110best of 3
WinOklahoma 68%
Georgia @ Alabama2.1 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia -4.8 · mkt Georgia ~-2.7
LeanGeorgia -2.7
Best priceGeorgia -2.5 -122best of 3
WinGeorgia 63%
Full Slate — SEC · Week 6 · 7 games
Texas @ OklahomaOklahoma 68%
Model
Oklahoma -6.8 · mkt Oklahoma ~+6.2
proj Texas 24.7 · Oklahoma 31.5
leans Oklahoma +6.2
◆ Mid 0.5
Oklahoma +6.5 -110FanDuel
Texas -6 -110DraftKings
Georgia @ AlabamaGeorgia 63%
Model
Georgia -4.8 · mkt Georgia ~-2.7
proj Georgia 30.8 · Alabama 26.1
leans Georgia -2.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Alabama +3 -110DraftKings
Georgia -2.5 -122FanDuel
South Carolina @ FloridaFlorida 65%
Model
Florida -5.5 · mkt Florida —
proj South Carolina 22.8 · Florida 28.3
Total
proj 51.1
Tennessee @ ArkansasTennessee 54%
Model
Tennessee -1.6 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Tennessee 29.1 · Arkansas 27.5
Total
proj 56.5
Ole Miss @ VanderbiltOle Miss 55%
Model
Ole Miss -1.8 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 30.1 · Vanderbilt 28.3
Total
proj 58.5
Texas A&M @ MissouriTexas A&M 59%
Model
Texas A&M -3.2 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Texas A&M 29.8 · Missouri 26.6
Total
proj 56.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.