CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — SEC · Week 5 · 6 games
Arkansas @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 91%
Model
Texas A&M -19.0 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Arkansas 17.9 · Texas A&M 36.9
Total
proj 54.8
Vanderbilt @ GeorgiaGeorgia 89%
Model
Georgia -17.6 · mkt Georgia —
proj Vanderbilt 15.6 · Georgia 33.2
Total
proj 48.9
Kentucky @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 72%
Model
South Carolina -8.2 · mkt South Carolina —
proj Kentucky 22.6 · South Carolina 30.7
Total
proj 53.3
Florida @ MissouriMissouri 68%
Model
Missouri -6.6 · mkt Missouri —
proj Florida 25.3 · Missouri 31.8
Total
proj 57.1
Auburn @ TennesseeTennessee 66%
Model
Tennessee -5.7 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Auburn 23.0 · Tennessee 28.7
Total
proj 51.8
Alabama @ Mississippi StateAlabama 79%
Model
Alabama -11.5 · mkt Alabama —
proj Alabama 34.0 · Mississippi State 22.5
Total
proj 56.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.