CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Texas A&M @ LSU6.7 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -3.7 · mkt Texas A&M ~+3.0
LeanTexas A&M +3.0
Best priceTexas A&M +3 -110best of 1
WinTexas A&M 60%
Texas @ Tennessee3.7 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas -2.8 · mkt Texas ~-6.5
LeanTennessee +6.5
Best priceTennessee +6.5 -110best of 1
WinTexas 58%
Oklahoma @ Georgia1.6 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia -11.6 · mkt Georgia ~-10.0
LeanGeorgia -10.0
Best priceGeorgia -10 -110best of 1
WinGeorgia 79%
Full Slate — SEC · Week 4 · 9 games
Texas A&M @ LSUTexas A&M 60%
Model
Texas A&M -3.7 · mkt Texas A&M ~+3.0
proj Texas A&M 28.2 · LSU 24.6
leans Texas A&M +3.0
◆ Mid 0
LSU -3 -110DraftKings
Texas A&M +3 -110DraftKings
Texas @ TennesseeTexas 58%
Model
Texas -2.8 · mkt Texas ~-6.5
proj Texas 30.2 · Tennessee 27.4
leans Tennessee +6.5
◆ Mid 0
Tennessee +6.5 -110DraftKings
Texas -6.5 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma @ GeorgiaGeorgia 79%
Model
Georgia -11.6 · mkt Georgia ~-10.0
proj Oklahoma 20.0 · Georgia 31.6
leans Georgia -10.0
◆ Mid 0
Georgia -10 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma +10 -110DraftKings
Tulsa @ ArkansasArkansas 94%
Model
Arkansas -22.4 · mkt Arkansas —
proj Tulsa 16.6 · Arkansas 39.0
Total
proj 55.6
South Alabama @ KentuckyKentucky 91%
Model
Kentucky -19.1 · mkt Kentucky —
proj South Alabama 17.5 · Kentucky 36.6
Total
proj 54.1
South Carolina @ AlabamaAlabama 86%
Model
Alabama -15.6 · mkt Alabama —
proj South Carolina 18.6 · Alabama 34.3
Total
proj 52.9
Missouri @ Mississippi StateMississippi State 53%
Model
Mississippi State -1.1 · mkt Mississippi State —
proj Missouri 29.0 · Mississippi State 30.1
Total
proj 59.1
Vanderbilt @ AuburnVanderbilt 53%
Model
Vanderbilt -1.0 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 26.5 · Auburn 25.5
Total
proj 52.0
Ole Miss @ FloridaOle Miss 73%
Model
Ole Miss -8.6 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 31.8 · Florida 23.2
Total
proj 55.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.