CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
LSU @ Ole Miss8.2 pt gap
Model vs mktOle Miss -10.2 · mkt Ole Miss ~-2.0
LeanOle Miss -2.0
Best priceOle Miss -1.5 -110best of 3
WinOle Miss 76%
Florida @ Auburn7.7 pt gap
Model vs mktAuburn -7.7 · mkt Auburn ~0.0
LeanAuburn 0.0
Best priceAuburn 0 -110best of 1
WinAuburn 71%
Florida State @ Alabama0.1 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -15.6 · mkt Alabama ~-15.5
LeanAlabama -15.5
Best priceAlabama -15.5 -110best of 1
WinAlabama 86%
Full Slate — SEC · Week 3 · 11 games
LSU @ Ole MissOle Miss 76%
Model
Ole Miss -10.2 · mkt Ole Miss ~-2.0
proj LSU 24.0 · Ole Miss 34.2
leans Ole Miss -2.0
◆ Mid 1
Ole Miss -1.5 -110DraftKings
LSU +2.5 -110FanDuel
Florida @ AuburnAuburn 71%
Model
Auburn -7.7 · mkt Auburn ~0.0
proj Florida 24.4 · Auburn 32.1
leans Auburn 0.0
◆ Mid 0
Auburn 0 -110DraftKings
Florida 0 -110DraftKings
Florida State @ AlabamaAlabama 86%
Model
Alabama -15.6 · mkt Alabama ~-15.5
proj Florida State 19.4 · Alabama 35.0
leans Alabama -15.5
◆ Mid 0
Alabama -15.5 -110DraftKings
Florida State +15.5 -110DraftKings
Kennesaw State @ TennesseeTennessee 98%
Model
Tennessee -30.3 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Kennesaw State 10.6 · Tennessee 40.9
Total
proj 51.6
New Mexico @ OklahomaOklahoma 97%
Model
Oklahoma -26.3 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj New Mexico 14.0 · Oklahoma 40.3
Total
proj 54.3
Troy @ MissouriMissouri 96%
Model
Missouri -25.0 · mkt Missouri —
proj Troy 15.5 · Missouri 40.5
Total
proj 55.9
Kentucky @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 89%
Model
Texas A&M -17.8 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Kentucky 17.1 · Texas A&M 34.9
Total
proj 52.0
NC State @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 78%
Model
Vanderbilt -10.9 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj NC State 20.3 · Vanderbilt 31.1
Total
proj 51.4
Mississippi State @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 67%
Model
South Carolina -6.3 · mkt South Carolina —
proj Mississippi State 23.3 · South Carolina 29.5
Total
proj 52.8
Georgia @ ArkansasGeorgia 85%
Model
Georgia -14.9 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia 36.7 · Arkansas 21.8
Total
proj 58.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.