CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Missouri @ Kansas6.9 pt gap
Model vs mktKansas -0.2 · mkt Kansas ~+6.7
LeanKansas +6.7
Best priceKansas +7 -110best of 2
WinKansas 50%
Ohio State @ Texas5.5 pt gap
Model vs mktOhio State -4.7 · mkt Ohio State ~+0.8
LeanOhio State +0.8
Best priceOhio State +1.5 -108best of 4
WinOhio State 63%
Oklahoma @ Michigan4.1 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -1.6 · mkt Oklahoma ~+2.5
LeanOklahoma +2.5
Best priceOklahoma +2.5 -110best of 4
WinOklahoma 54%
Arkansas @ Utah3.9 pt gap
Model vs mktUtah -13.9 · mkt Utah ~-10.0
LeanUtah -10.0
Best priceUtah -10 -110best of 1
WinUtah 84%
Arizona State @ Texas A&M2.5 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -17.0 · mkt Texas A&M ~-14.5
LeanTexas A&M -14.5
Best priceTexas A&M -14.5 -110best of 1
WinTexas A&M 88%
Full Slate — SEC · Week 2 · 13 games
Missouri @ KansasKansas 50%
Model
Kansas -0.2 · mkt Kansas ~+6.7
proj Missouri 29.4 · Kansas 29.5
leans Kansas +6.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Kansas +7 -110DraftKings
Missouri -6.5 -112FanDuel
Ohio State @ TexasOhio State 63%
Model
Ohio State -4.7 · mkt Ohio State ~+0.8
proj Ohio State 28.4 · Texas 23.7
leans Ohio State +0.8
◆ Mid 1.5
Texas 0 -110DraftKings
Ohio State +1.5 -108FanDuel
Oklahoma @ MichiganOklahoma 54%
Model
Oklahoma -1.6 · mkt Oklahoma ~+2.5
proj Oklahoma 25.1 · Michigan 23.5
leans Oklahoma +2.5
◆ Mid 0
Michigan -2.5 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma +2.5 -110DraftKings
Arkansas @ UtahUtah 84%
Model
Utah -13.9 · mkt Utah ~-10.0
proj Arkansas 21.5 · Utah 35.4
leans Utah -10.0
◆ Mid 0
Utah -10 -110DraftKings
Arkansas +10 -110DraftKings
Arizona State @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 88%
Model
Texas A&M -17.0 · mkt Texas A&M ~-14.5
proj Arizona State 17.5 · Texas A&M 34.4
leans Texas A&M -14.5
◆ Mid 0
Texas A&M -14.5 -110DraftKings
Arizona State +14.5 -110DraftKings
Western Kentucky @ GeorgiaGeorgia 100%
Model
Georgia -42.3 · mkt Georgia —
proj Western Kentucky 6.3 · Georgia 48.6
Total
proj 54.9
Charlotte @ Ole MissOle Miss 100%
Model
Ole Miss -39.4 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Charlotte 8.0 · Ole Miss 47.3
Total
proj 55.3
Delaware @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 100%
Model
Vanderbilt -37.1 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Delaware 7.9 · Vanderbilt 45.0
Total
proj 52.8
Southern Miss @ AuburnAuburn 98%
Model
Auburn -30.1 · mkt Auburn —
proj Southern Miss 13.5 · Auburn 43.6
Total
proj 57.1
Louisiana Tech @ LSULSU 95%
Model
LSU -23.0 · mkt LSU —
proj Louisiana Tech 14.0 · LSU 37.1
Total
proj 51.1
Mississippi State @ MinnesotaMinnesota 50%
Model
Minnesota 0.0 · mkt Minnesota —
proj Mississippi State 27.6 · Minnesota 27.6
Total
proj 55.2
Tennessee @ Georgia TechTennessee 68%
Model
Tennessee -6.5 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Tennessee 33.1 · Georgia Tech 26.7
Total
proj 59.8
Alabama @ KentuckyAlabama 78%
Model
Alabama -11.1 · mkt Alabama —
proj Alabama 32.4 · Kentucky 21.3
Total
proj 53.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.