CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 13 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
Full Slate SEC · Week 13 · 10 games
Model
Georgia -18.2 · mkt Georgia
proj Georgia Tech 16.9 · Georgia 35.1
Total
proj 52.0
Model
Ole Miss -15.3 · mkt Ole Miss
proj Mississippi State 17.8 · Ole Miss 33.1
Total
proj 51.0
Auburn @ AlabamaAlabama 67%
Model
Alabama -6.2 · mkt Alabama
proj Auburn 25.3 · Alabama 31.6
Total
proj 56.9
Model
Clemson -5.6 · mkt Clemson
proj South Carolina 25.3 · Clemson 30.9
Total
proj 56.2
Texas @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 64%
Model
Texas A&M -5.2 · mkt Texas A&M
proj Texas 24.1 · Texas A&M 29.3
Total
proj 53.5
Model
Vanderbilt -3.2 · mkt Vanderbilt
proj Tennessee 25.1 · Vanderbilt 28.2
Total
proj 53.3
Florida @ Florida StateFlorida State 57%
Model
Florida State -2.5 · mkt Florida State
proj Florida 26.1 · Florida State 28.6
Total
proj 54.7
Model
Kentucky -0.9 · mkt Kentucky
proj Louisville 27.3 · Kentucky 28.2
Total
proj 55.5
Model
Oklahoma -0.8 · mkt Oklahoma
proj Oklahoma 27.7 · Missouri 26.9
Total
proj 54.6
Model
LSU -9.3 · mkt LSU
proj LSU 31.2 · Arkansas 21.9
Total
proj 53.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.