CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — SEC · Week 12 · 6 games
Arkansas @ TexasTexas 84%
Model
Texas -14.4 · mkt Texas —
proj Arkansas 20.5 · Texas 34.9
Total
proj 55.5
Kentucky @ MissouriMissouri 71%
Model
Missouri -7.9 · mkt Missouri —
proj Kentucky 23.3 · Missouri 31.2
Total
proj 54.5
LSU @ TennesseeTennessee 65%
Model
Tennessee -5.5 · mkt Tennessee —
proj LSU 22.3 · Tennessee 27.8
Total
proj 50.2
Texas A&M @ OklahomaTexas A&M 50%
Model
Texas A&M -0.1 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Texas A&M 26.7 · Oklahoma 26.7
Total
proj 53.4
Vanderbilt @ FloridaVanderbilt 61%
Model
Vanderbilt -4.0 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 26.6 · Florida 22.6
Total
proj 49.1
Georgia @ South CarolinaGeorgia 90%
Model
Georgia -17.9 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia 36.8 · South Carolina 18.9
Total
proj 55.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.