CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — SEC · Week 11 · 8 games
Missouri @ GeorgiaGeorgia 84%
Model
Georgia -14.4 · mkt Georgia —
proj Missouri 20.7 · Georgia 35.1
Total
proj 55.8
Tennessee @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 70%
Model
Texas A&M -7.6 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Tennessee 22.9 · Texas A&M 30.6
Total
proj 53.5
Alabama @ VanderbiltAlabama 50%
Model
Alabama -0.1 · mkt Alabama —
proj Alabama 28.9 · Vanderbilt 28.8
Total
proj 57.7
Florida @ KentuckyFlorida 53%
Model
Florida -0.9 · mkt Florida —
proj Florida 28.9 · Kentucky 28.0
Total
proj 56.9
South Carolina @ ArkansasSouth Carolina 57%
Model
South Carolina -2.6 · mkt South Carolina —
proj South Carolina 28.1 · Arkansas 25.5
Total
proj 53.6
Auburn @ Mississippi StateAuburn 58%
Model
Auburn -2.8 · mkt Auburn —
proj Auburn 29.8 · Mississippi State 27.0
Total
proj 56.8
Ole Miss @ OklahomaOle Miss 60%
Model
Ole Miss -3.5 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 28.4 · Oklahoma 25.0
Total
proj 53.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.