CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — SEC · Week 10 · 8 games
Kentucky @ TennesseeTennessee 84%
Model
Tennessee -14.2 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Kentucky 18.8 · Tennessee 33.0
Total
proj 51.7
Arkansas @ AuburnAuburn 78%
Model
Auburn -10.9 · mkt Auburn —
proj Arkansas 22.1 · Auburn 33.0
Total
proj 55.1
Texas @ MissouriMissouri 52%
Model
Missouri -0.9 · mkt Missouri —
proj Texas 25.7 · Missouri 26.6
Total
proj 52.3
Georgia @ Ole MissGeorgia 54%
Model
Georgia -1.5 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia 30.7 · Ole Miss 29.2
Total
proj 59.9
Oklahoma @ FloridaOklahoma 57%
Model
Oklahoma -2.5 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Oklahoma 28.2 · Florida 25.7
Total
proj 53.8
Texas A&M @ South CarolinaTexas A&M 69%
Model
Texas A&M -7.2 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Texas A&M 28.4 · South Carolina 21.2
Total
proj 49.7
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi StateVanderbilt 81%
Model
Vanderbilt -12.3 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 33.9 · Mississippi State 21.6
Total
proj 55.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.