CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
East Carolina @ Alabama11.7 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -14.3 · mkt Alabama ~-26.0
LeanEast Carolina +26.0
Best priceEast Carolina +26.5 -108best of 7
WinAlabama 84%
Clemson @ LSU7.8 pt gap
Model vs mktLSU -3.7 · mkt LSU ~-11.5
LeanClemson +11.5
Best priceClemson +12 -109best of 8
WinLSU 60%
Louisville @ Ole Miss7.1 pt gap
Model vs mktOle Miss -12.6 · mkt Ole Miss ~-5.5
LeanOle Miss -5.5
Best priceOle Miss -4.5 -110best of 6
WinOle Miss 81%
Florida Atlantic @ Florida5.4 pt gap
Model vs mktFlorida -31.7 · mkt Florida ~-26.3
LeanFlorida -26.3
Best priceFlorida -26 -106best of 7
WinFlorida 99%
Baylor @ Auburn5.1 pt gap
Model vs mktAuburn -12.6 · mkt Auburn ~-7.5
LeanAuburn -7.5
Best priceAuburn -7 -105best of 8
WinAuburn 81%
Missouri State @ Texas A&M4.7 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -43.7 · mkt Texas A&M ~-39.0
LeanTexas A&M -39.0
Best priceTexas A&M -38.5 -110best of 7
WinTexas A&M 100%
Texas State @ Texas2.8 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas -28.2 · mkt Texas ~-31.0
LeanTexas State +31.0
Best priceTexas State +31.5 -115best of 7
WinTexas 98%
UL Monroe @ Mississippi State2.4 pt gap
Model vs mktMississippi State -30.9 · mkt Mississippi State ~-28.5
LeanMississippi State -28.5
Best priceMississippi State -28.5 -108best of 7
WinMississippi State 99%
Full Slate — SEC · Week 1 · 10 games
East Carolina @ AlabamaAlabama 84%
Model
Alabama -14.3 · mkt Alabama ~-26.0
proj East Carolina 18.8 · Alabama 33.1
leans East Carolina +26.0
◆ Mid 1
Alabama -25.5 -115FanDuel
East Carolina +26.5 -108DraftKings
Clemson @ LSULSU 60%
Model
LSU -3.7 · mkt LSU ~-11.5
proj Clemson 25.3 · LSU 29.0
leans Clemson +11.5
◆ Mid 1
LSU -11 -111LowVig
Clemson +12 -109BetRivers
Louisville @ Ole MissOle Miss 81%
Model
Ole Miss -12.6 · mkt Ole Miss ~-5.5
proj Louisville 19.5 · Ole Miss 32.1
leans Ole Miss -5.5
◆ Mid 2
Ole Miss -4.5 -110BetOnline
Louisville +6.5 -108DraftKings
Florida Atlantic @ FloridaFlorida 99%
Model
Florida -31.7 · mkt Florida ~-26.3
proj Florida Atlantic 12.8 · Florida 44.5
leans Florida -26.3
◆ Mid 0.5
Florida -26 -106LowVig
Florida Atlantic +26.5 -108DraftKings
Baylor @ AuburnAuburn 81%
Model
Auburn -12.6 · mkt Auburn ~-7.5
proj Baylor 21.3 · Auburn 34.0
leans Auburn -7.5
◆ Mid 1
Auburn -7 -105DraftKings
Baylor +8 -113BetRivers
Missouri State @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 100%
Model
Texas A&M -43.7 · mkt Texas A&M ~-39.0
proj Missouri State 4.4 · Texas A&M 48.1
leans Texas A&M -39.0
◆ Mid 1
Texas A&M -38.5 -110DraftKings
Missouri State +39.5 -110FanDuel
Texas State @ TexasTexas 98%
Model
Texas -28.2 · mkt Texas ~-31.0
proj Texas State 13.5 · Texas 41.6
leans Texas State +31.0
◆ Mid 1
Texas -30.5 -110DraftKings
Texas State +31.5 -115FanDuel
UL Monroe @ Mississippi StateMississippi State 99%
Model
Mississippi State -30.9 · mkt Mississippi State ~-28.5
proj UL Monroe 13.0 · Mississippi State 43.8
leans Mississippi State -28.5
◆ Mid 0
Mississippi State -28.5 -108DraftKings
UL Monroe +28.5 -112DraftKings
UTEP @ OklahomaOklahoma 100%
Model
Oklahoma -37.7 · mkt Oklahoma ~-40.0
proj UTEP 8.9 · Oklahoma 46.6
leans UTEP +40.0
◆ Mid 1
Oklahoma -39.5 -115FanDuel
UTEP +40.5 -108DraftKings
Kent State @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 99%
Model
South Carolina -35.5 · mkt South Carolina ~-34.5
proj Kent State 12.3 · South Carolina 47.7
leans South Carolina -34.5
◆ Mid 0
South Carolina -34.5 -110DraftKings
Kent State +34.5 -110DraftKings
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.