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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 8 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · SEC · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–0100%
ATS vs close
4–450%
Model margin MAE
7.2
Market margin MAE
6.9
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Tennessee @ AlabamaFinal 20–37
Model
pred Alabama 10.1 · actual Alabama 17
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.9 · mkt 8.5 · closer
LSU @ VanderbiltFinal 24–31
Model
pred Vanderbilt 8.8 · actual Vanderbilt 7
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Ole Miss @ GeorgiaFinal 35–43
Model
pred Georgia 6.1 · actual Georgia 8
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Mississippi State @ FloridaFinal 21–23
Model
pred Florida 3.9 · actual Florida 2
winner Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Oklahoma @ South CarolinaFinal 26–7
Model
pred Oklahoma 2.5 · actual Oklahoma 19
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.5 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Missouri @ AuburnFinal 23–17
Model
pred Missouri 4.1 · actual Missouri 6
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Texas A&M @ ArkansasFinal 45–42
Model
pred Texas A&M 11.0 · actual Texas A&M 3
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Texas @ KentuckyFinal 16–13
Model
pred Texas 21.7 · actual Texas 3
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.7 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.