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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 5 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · SEC · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
7–188%
ATS vs close
3–538%
Model margin MAE
11.0
Market margin MAE
9.4
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Massachusetts @ MissouriFinal 6–42
Model
pred Missouri 43.2 · actual Missouri 36
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +44.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Utah State @ VanderbiltFinal 35–55
Model
pred Vanderbilt 28.2 · actual Vanderbilt 20
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt -23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
LSU @ Ole MissFinal 19–24
Model
pred Ole Miss 9.1 · actual Ole Miss 5
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Auburn @ Texas A&MFinal 10–16
Model
pred Texas A&M 7.8 · actual Texas A&M 6
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ ArkansasFinal 56–13
Model
pred Arkansas 1.3 · actual Notre Dame 43
winner Arkansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 44.3 · mkt 37.5 · mkt closer
Kentucky @ South CarolinaFinal 13–35
Model
pred South Carolina 1.1 · actual South Carolina 22
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Alabama @ GeorgiaFinal 24–21
Model
pred Alabama 3.5 · actual Alabama 3
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Tennessee @ Mississippi StateFinal 41–34
Model
pred Tennessee 8.2 · actual Tennessee 7
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.2 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.