CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 4 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · SEC · 9 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–189%
ATS vs close
5–456%
Model margin MAE
10.4
Market margin MAE
10.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Sam Houston @ TexasFinal 0–55
Model
pred Texas 34.7 · actual Texas 55
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +39.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.3 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Georgia State @ VanderbiltFinal 21–70
Model
pred Vanderbilt 32.3 · actual Vanderbilt 49
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt -27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.7 · mkt 21.5 · closer
UAB @ TennesseeFinal 24–56
Model
pred Tennessee 28.6 · actual Tennessee 32
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +39.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Tulane @ Ole MissFinal 10–45
Model
pred Ole Miss 15.2 · actual Ole Miss 35
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.8 · mkt 22.5 · closer
South Carolina @ MissouriFinal 20–29
Model
pred Missouri 13.8 · actual Missouri 9
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Northern Illinois @ Mississippi StateFinal 10–38
Model
pred Mississippi State 11.7 · actual Mississippi State 28
winner Mississippi State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Florida @ MiamiFinal 7–26
Model
pred Miami 10.7 · actual Miami 19
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami -8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Auburn @ OklahomaFinal 17–24
Model
pred Oklahoma 4.5 · actual Oklahoma 7
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas @ MemphisFinal 31–32
Model
pred Arkansas 0.1 · actual Memphis 1
winner Arkansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 8.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.