CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 3 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · SEC · 11 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
9–282%
ATS vs close
6–555%
Model margin MAE
13.9
Market margin MAE
10.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UTEP @ TexasFinal 10–27
Model
pred Texas 37.2 · actual Texas 17
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +39.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.2 · mkt 22.5 · closer
Eastern Michigan @ KentuckyFinal 23–48
Model
pred Kentucky 23.8 · actual Kentucky 25
winner Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +26.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.2 · mkt 1.5 · closer
South Alabama @ AuburnFinal 15–31
Model
pred Auburn 19.6 · actual Auburn 16
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama +26.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Wisconsin @ AlabamaFinal 14–38
Model
pred Alabama 17.6 · actual Alabama 24
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ MissouriFinal 10–52
Model
pred Missouri 12.0 · actual Missouri 42
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +27.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.0 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Florida @ LSUFinal 10–20
Model
pred LSU 7.1 · actual LSU 10
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LSU -5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.9 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Oklahoma @ TempleFinal 42–3
Model
pred Temple 0.7 · actual Oklahoma 39
winner Temple ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.7 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Vanderbilt @ South CarolinaFinal 31–7
Model
pred Vanderbilt 2.1 · actual Vanderbilt 24
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.9 · mkt 27.0 · closer
Arkansas @ Ole MissFinal 35–41
Model
pred Arkansas 3.6 · actual Ole Miss 6
winner Arkansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.6 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Texas A&M @ Notre DameFinal 41–40
Model
pred Texas A&M 9.8 · actual Texas A&M 1
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Georgia @ TennesseeFinal 44–41
Model
pred Georgia 12.0 · actual Georgia 3
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.0 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.