CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 2 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS IndependentsBig Sky
Week 2 backtest · SEC · 12 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
9–375%
ATS vs close
10–283%
Model margin MAE
13.1
Market margin MAE
14.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UL Monroe @ AlabamaFinal 0–73
Model
pred Alabama 45.4 · actual Alabama 73
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -34.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.6 · mkt 38.7 · closer
Ball State @ AuburnFinal 3–42
Model
pred Auburn 31.3 · actual Auburn 39
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +42.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 3.8 · mkt closer
Louisiana Tech @ LSUFinal 7–23
Model
pred LSU 28.1 · actual LSU 16
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +36.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.1 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Utah State @ Texas A&MFinal 22–44
Model
pred Texas A&M 22.2 · actual Texas A&M 22
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +34.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.2 · mkt 12.5 · closer
San José State @ TexasFinal 7–38
Model
pred Texas 22.1 · actual Texas 31
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +36.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.9 · mkt 5.8 · mkt closer
South Florida @ FloridaFinal 18–16
Model
pred Florida 16.2 · actual South Florida 2
winner Florida ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Arkansas State @ ArkansasFinal 14–56
Model
pred Arkansas 13.8 · actual Arkansas 42
winner Arkansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.2 · mkt 18.0 · mkt closer
Kansas @ MissouriFinal 31–42
Model
pred Missouri 7.3 · actual Missouri 11
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.7 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Michigan @ OklahomaFinal 13–24
Model
pred Oklahoma 4.3 · actual Oklahoma 11
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Vanderbilt @ Virginia TechFinal 44–20
Model
pred Virginia Tech 1.9 · actual Vanderbilt 24
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 25.9 · mkt 26.0 · closer
Ole Miss @ KentuckyFinal 30–23
Model
pred Ole Miss 2.0 · actual Ole Miss 7
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky +7.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.0 · mkt 0.8 · mkt closer
Arizona State @ Mississippi StateFinal 20–24
Model
pred Arizona State 9.0 · actual Mississippi State 4
winner Arizona State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State -5.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 9.8 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.