CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 15 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
Week 15 backtest · SEC · 1 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
1–0100%
ATS vs close
0–10%
Model margin MAE
20.7
Market margin MAE
19.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Georgia @ AlabamaFinal 28–7
Model
pred Georgia 0.3 · actual Georgia 21
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.7 · mkt 19.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.