CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 14 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · SEC · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
10–0100%
ATS vs close
8–1 · 1P89%
Model margin MAE
11.5
Market margin MAE
15.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kentucky @ LouisvilleFinal 0–41
Model
pred Louisville 12.2 · actual Louisville 41
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisville +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.8 · mkt 42.5 · closer
Florida State @ FloridaFinal 21–40
Model
pred Florida 4.8 · actual Florida 19
winner Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.2 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Texas A&M @ TexasFinal 17–27
Model
pred Texas 2.7 · actual Texas 10
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.3 · mkt 12.5 · closer
LSU @ OklahomaFinal 13–17
Model
pred Oklahoma 2.6 · actual Oklahoma 4
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LSU +11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Vanderbilt @ TennesseeFinal 45–24
Model
pred Vanderbilt 0.2 · actual Vanderbilt 21
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.8 · mkt 23.5 · closer
Clemson @ South CarolinaFinal 28–14
Model
pred Clemson 3.6 · actual Clemson 14
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Missouri @ ArkansasFinal 31–17
Model
pred Missouri 4.0 · actual Missouri 14
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Ole Miss @ Mississippi StateFinal 38–19
Model
pred Ole Miss 13.8 · actual Ole Miss 19
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Georgia @ Georgia TechFinal 16–9
Model
pred Georgia 14.2 · actual Georgia 7
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Alabama @ AuburnFinal 27–20
Model
pred Alabama 16.3 · actual Alabama 7
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -7.0Push
margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.