CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 13 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 13 backtest · SEC · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–186%
ATS vs close
5–271%
Model margin MAE
13.4
Market margin MAE
14.6
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Charlotte @ GeorgiaFinal 3–35
Model
pred Georgia 42.4 · actual Georgia 32
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +42.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Western Kentucky @ LSUFinal 10–13
Model
pred LSU 22.1 · actual LSU 3
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +24.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.1 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Coastal Carolina @ South CarolinaFinal 7–51
Model
pred South Carolina 17.6 · actual South Carolina 44
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.4 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Kentucky @ VanderbiltFinal 17–45
Model
pred Vanderbilt 15.8 · actual Vanderbilt 28
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.2 · mkt 21.0 · closer
Arkansas @ TexasFinal 37–52
Model
pred Texas 15.3 · actual Texas 15
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Missouri @ OklahomaFinal 6–17
Model
pred Oklahoma 6.6 · actual Oklahoma 11
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.4 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Tennessee @ FloridaFinal 31–11
Model
pred Florida 1.3 · actual Tennessee 20
winner Florida ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.3 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.