CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 1 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · SEC · 11 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–373%
ATS vs close
8–373%
Model margin MAE
11.5
Market margin MAE
9.3
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Georgia State @ Ole MissFinal 7–63
Model
pred Ole Miss 25.2 · actual Ole Miss 56
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +33.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.8 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
UTSA @ Texas A&MFinal 24–42
Model
pred Texas A&M 20.3 · actual Texas A&M 18
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Marshall @ GeorgiaFinal 7–45
Model
pred Georgia 18.6 · actual Georgia 38
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +38.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Syracuse @ TennesseeFinal 26–45
Model
pred Tennessee 16.3 · actual Tennessee 19
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee -13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.7 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Toledo @ KentuckyFinal 16–24
Model
pred Kentucky 9.2 · actual Kentucky 8
winner Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.2 · mkt 2.0 · closer
Virginia Tech @ South CarolinaFinal 11–24
Model
pred South Carolina 8.8 · actual South Carolina 13
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Auburn @ BaylorFinal 38–24
Model
pred Baylor 5.6 · actual Auburn 14
winner Baylor ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor +1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.6 · mkt 13.0 · mkt closer
LSU @ ClemsonFinal 17–10
Model
pred Clemson 4.3 · actual LSU 7
winner Clemson ✗
ATS vs close
leaned LSU +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.3 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Texas @ Ohio StateFinal 7–14
Model
pred Ohio State 3.4 · actual Ohio State 7
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Alabama @ Florida StateFinal 17–31
Model
pred Alabama 16.1 · actual Florida State 14
winner Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.1 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
Mississippi State @ Southern MissFinal 34–17
Model
pred Mississippi State 18.5 · actual Mississippi State 17
winner Mississippi State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State -14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 2.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.