CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 9 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · SEC · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
6–0100%
ATS vs close
2–433%
Model margin MAE
17.3
Market margin MAE
15.7
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Oklahoma @ Ole MissFinal 14–26
Model
pred Ole Miss 16.9 · actual Ole Miss 12
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +19.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.9 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Missouri @ AlabamaFinal 0–34
Model
pred Alabama 9.4 · actual Alabama 34
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri +16.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.6 · mkt 18.0 · mkt closer
LSU @ Texas A&MFinal 23–38
Model
pred Texas A&M 1.5 · actual Texas A&M 15
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LSU +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.5 · mkt 13.0 · mkt closer
Auburn @ KentuckyFinal 24–10
Model
pred Auburn 0.5 · actual Auburn 14
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.5 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Arkansas @ Mississippi StateFinal 58–25
Model
pred Arkansas 5.7 · actual Arkansas 33
winner Arkansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.3 · mkt 25.5 · mkt closer
Texas @ VanderbiltFinal 27–24
Model
pred Texas 22.7 · actual Texas 3
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.7 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.