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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 7 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · SEC · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–271%
ATS vs close
1–614%
Model margin MAE
17.4
Market margin MAE
15.2
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Mississippi State @ GeorgiaFinal 31–41
Model
pred Georgia 30.9 · actual Georgia 10
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +34.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 24.0 · closer
South Carolina @ AlabamaFinal 25–27
Model
pred Alabama 28.2 · actual Alabama 2
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.2 · mkt 19.0 · mkt closer
Florida @ TennesseeFinal 17–23
Model
pred Tennessee 16.9 · actual Tennessee 6
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee -14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
Vanderbilt @ KentuckyFinal 20–13
Model
pred Kentucky 12.7 · actual Vanderbilt 7
winner Kentucky ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.7 · mkt 19.5 · mkt closer
Ole Miss @ LSUFinal 26–29
Model
pred Ole Miss 4.4 · actual LSU 3
winner Ole Miss ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Texas @ OklahomaFinal 34–3
Model
pred Texas 11.4 · actual Texas 31
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.6 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Missouri @ MassachusettsFinal 45–3
Model
pred Missouri 24.9 · actual Missouri 42
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +27.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.1 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.